Polls are flawed tools. And midterm elections come down to turnout.
No matter what the general opinion is, if the Dems are more passionate about getting out and voting, and if they put more money into the races, it's quite possible they'll score. But the polls are turning on them.
Republicans have erased the Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot in a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll that, for the first time since April, also shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating equaling the percentage of voters who disapprove of his job performance.
Fully 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. Nearly a quarter of voters, 23 percent, are undecided.
The undecided margins are still huge. That seems to be the pattern in the Trump age. And last time around that worked out well for the GOP. In the midterms, it may just mean a lot of people won't vote.
But the generic ballot is falling. That huge Dem advantage has become history.
“Not only have Republicans increased support on the generic congressional ballot, they are now trusted more to handle the most important issue when voters head to the polls: the economy,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer. “In mid-December, 39 percent of voters said they trusted Democrats more to handle the economy, compared to 38 percent who said Republicans. Today, 43 percent say Republicans and 32 percent say Democrats."
Congressional Republicans also have a 9-point advantage on handling jobs, a 6-point lead on dealing with immigration and a 19-point lead on handling national security. The Democratic advantage on health care has dwindled to just 4 percentage points, down from double digits last year.
Those are catastrophic numbers. And they show that running on the economy is working.
Tax reform has paid off. Between the bonuses and the new withholding tables, more people are seeing results. The Schumer shutdown played badly. The State of the Union nailed a positive message.
And the Dems have spent so much time buried in Mueller conspiracy theories that no one except them cares about that they've lost touch with actual voters.