A good deal of the noise surrounding Brexit centered on the threat that Scotland would leave the UK in order to join the EU. There's just one problem. It's far from certain that the EU wants Scotland.
Nicola Sturgeon’s plan to bypass the UK Government and lobby the EU directly to let Scotland stay has suffered a major setback after the president of the powerful European Council rejected her invitation for talks.
But Donald Tusk, the council president, declined her overtures by arguing that a meeting would be “not appropriate” given the “situation in the UK.”
His refusal is significant as the European Council comprises the heads of all the member states, who would have to unanimously agree to any special deal for Scotland, whether it was independent or not.
Several central and eastern European states are reported to be concerned that meeting Ms Sturgeon would encourage other separatist movements.
And Scotland may not be as eager to defect as it seems to either.
Ms Sturgeon won a mandate to start discussions with European officials and member states.
She also received parliamentary authority to explore “options” for protecting Scotland’s EU status, including independence. Ms Sturgeon told MSPs that backing the Scottish Government motion was not the same as supporting a second referendum.
What's wrong? For one thing, Scotland has quite a few economic problems. Scotland's economy relies heavily on oil which isn't doing that well these days. And its financial industry would run into major problems without access to the UK. To some European leaders, Scotland looks like another troubled and unstable economy trying to enter a union already full of them. Scotland has Greece's government and while it doesn't yet have Greece's economy, it's not hard to see how the SNP without the UK could make that happen. And the SNP is more eager to be seen pushing independence while losing the fight than actually getting it.
The period independence fights extract concessions from the UK while mobilizing supporters. The actual outcome would be a major disaster. The SNP would like to extract maximum financial benefits from the crisis.