We've recently had two object lessons in the worthlessness of the "Trump is Doomed" polling saga. A few days ago, the media was loudly trumpeting that Hillary's victory was inevitable, that the polls were in and she was going to ignore Trump and focus on building her administration and winning downticket races. And then, just like last time around, the numbers turned around again.
I was recently asked to predict the race. I answered that the one thing I could predict is that the media will claim a landslide for Hillary right before the election. That much is very likely.
It's in the media's interest to spread FUD by promoting polls that predict not just a Hillary win, but a landslide, creating the perception that voting is useless. The more Republicans feel that the outcome is futile, the less likely they will be to go out and vote. But the scandal polling numbers have a history of rebounding. This remains a challenging and very unusual election.
The premature panic we've seen in some circles is unhealthy. We shouldn't completely ignore poll numbers, but neither should we treat them as inevitable.
We've had two major lessons in why that's short sighted.